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Table 3‑2 Selected climate change impacts on the energy system across regions

 

Primary energy production

Energy transformation

Transportation, transmission, distribution and storage

Energy demand

Northern Europe

+ Increase in hydropower production due to increased streamflow

+ Increase in offshore wind power potential due to increasing wind speeds

+ Increase in energy crop production as growing area moves north

± Easier fossil fuel extraction as warming increases accessibility of resources in the Arctic

- Increasing risks for coastal and offshore energy production infrastructure (wind, oil and gas) from sea level rise, storm surges and coastal erosion

- Increased risk to coastal energy infrastructure (power plants and refineries) from sea level rise, storm surges and erosion

± New route opportunities for sea transportation of fossil fuels (oil and gas) in Arctic areas due to melting sea ice

- Increased damage risks to pipelines (oil and gas) in Arctic areas due to degrading permafrost

- Increased risk to transmission and distribution grids from storms

+ Reduced net energy demand for heating and cooling due to increasing ambient temperature

British Isles

- Increasing risks for coastal and offshore energy production infrastructure (wind, oil and gas) from sea level rise, storm surges and coastal erosion

- Increased risk to transmission and distribution grids from storms and inland floods

- Increased risk to electric substations from inland floods

Central Western Europe

- Reduced output or forced shutdown of thermal power plants (fossil, nuclear and biomass) from reduced cooling water availability

Central Eastern Europe

Iberian Peninsula

- Decrease in hydropower production due to decreasing streamflow

- Decreasing potential for concentrated solar power due to water shortages

- Decrease in energy crop production due to increasing water scarcity

- Reduced capacity of transmission and distribution cables due to increasing heatwaves

- Reduced potential for pumped hydro storage due to reducing water availability and increasing evaporation

- Increase in peak electricity demand for cooling due to increasing heat waves

- Increase in energy demand for desalination to compensate for decreasing freshwater availability

Apennine Peninsula

South Eastern Europe

Note: Red text preceded by ‘-‘indicates predominantly adverse impacts; green text preceded by ‘+’ indicates predominantly beneficial impacts; grey text preceded by ‘±’ indicates impacts that cannot be classified as ‘adverse’ or ‘beneficial’ due to complex economic and environmental effects. Blue bold text indicates impacts on renewable energy; brown bold text indicates impacts on fossil energy; black bold text indicates impacts on other energy sources and carriers (i.e. nuclear, electricity, heating and cooling). [This table will be transformed into a map or infographic.]

Source: Authors’ compilation

Previous comments

  • fussehan (Hans-Martin Füssel) 22 Jan 2019 15:30:11

    The meaning of 'red bold' text is not explained.

    • Simon Jude (invited by Hans-Martin Füssel) 18 Feb 2019 22:24:25

       

      The meaning of 'red bold' text is not explained.

      The table formatting might benefit from some further thought as it isn't easy to interpret.  Any table that includes a long explanatory note immediately triggers alarm bells for me!

  • mahrepet (Petra Mahrenholz) 14 Feb 2019 14:32:26

    Since energy crops lead to severe sustainability challenges (i.a adverse effects on food security, water supply and ecosystems), it is highly questionable why "Increase in energy crop production as growing area moves north" is positively evaluated and "Decrease in energy crop production due to increasing water scarcity" is negatively evaluated in the table. Please reconsider your judgement and add the negative/positive aspects.

  • mahrepet (Petra Mahrenholz) 14 Feb 2019 14:37:20

    It is odd that "Easier fossil fuel extraction as warming increases accessibility of resources in the Arctic" and "New route opportunities for sea transportation of fossil fuels (oil and gas) in Arctic areas due to melting sea ice" are mentioned. Effective climate mitigation means that there has to be an early phase out of the exploitation and transportation of fossil fuels. Reduced environmentally harmful subsidies and an effective CO2 pricing facilitate this necessary phase out and stop the self-reinforcing effects of the combustion of fossil fuels on climate change. Only absolutely necessary financial resources should be devoted to conventional energy infrastructure in order to prevent environmental hazards. Societies have to especially use available funds for climate adaption of renewable energy infrastructure. We would appreciate a further elaboration of these considerations in the report.

  • Claus Kondrup (invited by Hans-Martin Füssel) 14 Feb 2019 16:42:21

    Concerning line 2760 and “Table 3-2 Selected climate change impacts on the energy system across regions´”, the column “Transportation, transmission, distribution and storage”: There is likely an increased risk to coastal installations due to sea level rise combined with storm surges and possibly inland cloudburst and flooding, which could be mentioned.

    In the column “Energy demand” for “Northern Europe”, there is likely to be an increased energy demand for cooling (not reduced).

  • Paul Behrens (invited by Hans-Martin Füssel) 16 Feb 2019 16:30:59

    Absolutely agree with Petra's point above. It also would be bad news for host of other environmental issues with respect to biodiversity and other ag-related impacts.

  • tsalaioa (Ioanna Tsalakanidou) 18 Feb 2019 10:43:03

    As Claus mentioned, in the column “Energy demand” for “Northern Europe”, there is likely to be an increased (not decreased) energy demand for cooling. Hence: "+ Reduced net energy demand for heating due to increasing ambient temperature" and " -Increased net energy demand for cooling due to increasing ambient temperature".  

  • kurnibla (Blaz Kurnik) 18 Feb 2019 11:42:32

    CE Europe for PEP should not be empty. There are impactrs similar CW Europe and SE Europe -related to droughts, HWs.

  • Andras Toth (invited by Hans-Martin Füssel) 18 Feb 2019 23:11:25

    No change in the impact from snow and ice on electricity transmission and distribution?

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