3 Renewable water resources

Renewable water resources (RWR) are generated and replenished by precipitation and inflow of surface and groundwater from neighbouring countries throughout the hydrological year. Net precipitation (interflow as the difference between precipitation and actual evapotranspiration) replenishes surface run-off to rivers, lakes and recharge groundwater aquifers. Surface waters and groundwater flowing from neighbouring countries (external inflow or inflow from upstream countries) is an important part of the renewable water resources (UNECE, 2020b).

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Due to natural hydro-climate conditions, renewable freshwater resources are not evenly distributed among the six countries. Similarly, there are regional variations in renewable freshwater resources within each individual country. Several indicators can be used for measuring available renewable freshwater resources. Three indicators are used in this analysis to address renewable freshwater resources of the Eastern Partnership countries: water availability per capita; water stress level; and dependency ratio.    

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3.1       Water availability per capita in the countries

The Falkenmark indicator (Falkenmark, et al., 1989; Brown and Matlock, 2011) sets 1 700 m3/per capita/year of water availability as the threshold for water stress. Those countries having above 1 700 m3/per capita/year, of renewable freshwater resources are regarded as not being under water stress. In that context, none of the Eastern Partnership  countries, excluding Ukraine as no data is available for assessing,  suffered from the water shortage in 2017 (Figure 3: Water availability per capita (2017).

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 Figure 3: Water availability per capita (2017)

Note: Data provided under the ENI SEIS II East Project. Due to no data from Ukraine, this country could not be included into the chart.

Data source: Azerbaijan: State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, World Bank; Armenia: ArmStatBank (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia); Belarus: Belstat (National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus); Georgia: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Moldova: Statistical Databank of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova

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Georgia holds the highest renewable freshwater resources per capita on average with 13 500 m3/capita/year, whereas the Republic of Moldova has the lowest 1 800 m3/capita – only slightly above the Falkenmark threshold of water stress. However, this assessment needs to be interpreted with caution due to data uncertainty on the renewable freshwater resources of Moldova.

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Each country presents different internal and external dynamics in renewable freshwater resources over the years. As the indicator is affected by changes in total population and climate conditions inside and outside of the countries’ territory, the trend of this indicator provides a very mixed overview across the countries. In all countries except Azerbaijan, there is a decreasing trend or stable condition in total population.

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The Armenian population decreased by 8% between 2000-2018, which coupled with higher precipitation, increased renewable freshwater resources per capita from 1 000 m3/capita year in early 2000’s up to 2 211 m3/capita in 2018.

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Population dynamics in Georgia have remained stable over the last decade (2008-2017). Whilst Georgia has the highest renewable water resources per capita in the Region, it seems that climate conditions are impacting on its renewable freshwater resources. Renewable water resources per capita decreased by 6% between 2008-2017..

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Azerbaijan presents a very dynamic population trend, with a remarkable increase of 22 % between 2000-2017. Over the same period, internal flow and inflow of water from other countries sharply decreased. As a result, RWR per capita dramatically decreased by 34 % in the country between 2000-2017.

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Since 2000, there has been no significant change in the total population of the Republic of Moldova, nor has there been one in RWR per capita. Total population in the country has decreased by 1.4 % while RWR per capita increased around 1.3 % between 2000 and 2017.

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Belarus also shows a strong correlation between population decrease and RWR increase per capita between 2000 and 2017population decreased by 7%, and RWR per capita increased 8%.

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Taking into account natural and man-made factors influencing renewable freshwater resources in the Region, a decreasing trend in renewable water resources might be expected in the near future, which would exacerbate shortages in seasonal and annual water supplies.

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3.2       Water stress conditions

Comparing water availability to demand is another strong indicator to identify the level of water stress caused by man-made factors. Overall, water stress occurs when demand for water exceeds a certain level of water availability: above 20 % indicates moderate water stress, whereas 40 % and above indicates severe water scarcity conditions and unsustainable water resources management (Raskin et al., 1997). Changes in natural conditions such as decreasing precipitation or increasing evapotranspiration may negatively influence the availability of renewable freshwater resources. Similarly, man-made factors such as changing land cover/land use or increasing water demand might also increase the water stress level. The water exploitation index (WEI) is applied as a strong measure of the level of water stress. The WEI or withdrawal ratio is defined as the annual total abstraction of fresh water divided by the annual freshwater resources.

The application of the WEI indicates that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been experiencing severe water scarcity conditions (Figure 4).

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Figure 4 Annual water exploitation index (2017)

Data source: Azerbaijan: State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan; Armenia: ArmStatBank (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia); Belarus: Belstat (National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus), National environmental monitoring system of the Republic of Belarus, Water Cadastre Information System of the Republic of Belarus, World Bank Databank; Georgia: Water Division of the Department of Environment and Climate Change and the Integrated Management Division of the Department of Environmental Assessment - Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture; Moldova: Statistical Databank of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, Agency Apele Moldove.

Note: Data provided under the ENI SEIS II East Project. Due to no data from Ukraine, this country could not be included into the chart.

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The WEI in Armenia and Azerbaijan is ‘unsustainable’ and has resulted in severe water scarcity conditions. In fact, Armenia is not scarce in renewable water resources. Between 2000-2017 the annual renewable freshwater resource in the country was around 6 670 million m3, corresponding to 2 189 m3/per capita per year. However, due to poor water management practices (e.g. high water losses and leakages), it has been facing severe water stress conditions for a long time. The average annual WEI is above 40 %. The annual WEI in 2017 was even 61.4 %. That means that almost two thirds of all renewable freshwater resources in Armenia were abstracted to meet the country’s water demands. Despite the total population of Armenia decreasing around 8 % between 2000-2017, water demand has increased by 4.5 % over the same period. Ageing and inefficiency in water distribution system create tremendous pressure on the country’s water resources. As an example, 66 % of the total water supply was lost in 2000 due to leakage. During recent years, Armenia has been investing in improving the public water supply network, particularly to rural areas (World Bank, 2017), andater losses are slowly being reduced.

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Armenia meets about 65 % of the total water demand from surface water resources. In particular, Lake Sevan plays an important role in meeting the country’s water demand, which creates pressures on the ecological and hydrological conditions of the lake. In parallel, water abstraction from groundwater resources has also more than doubled since 2000. Groundwater is mainly used for drinking purposes and agriculture (UNECE, 2000b).

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Azerbaijan is another country in the region facing severe water stress conditions, and where the annual average water exploitation index is above 30 %. The water exploitation index was estimated as 41.2 % in 2017 ([1]). As a result of climate conditions, only ¼ of total precipitation contributes to internal flow in the country’s water resources. Annual average renewable freshwater resources are decreasing. In 2000, they were 38 000 million m3, but in 2017 only 30 000 million m3 In Azerbaijan, agriculture is the sector with the highest water demand. Irrigation accounts for 90 % of total water abstraction every year, watering around 4.8 million ha of agricultural land, mainly lying in the lowlands of the Kura and Aras basins. In general, agricultural land occupies 55 % of the total country area with no significant change in extent over time. The agricultural sector employs 38 % of the country’s population (UNECE, 2011b). Water abstraction increased by 15 % between 2000-2017, while renewable freshwater resources decreased by 20 %.

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Azerbaijan has very high rates of water use in irrigation. In 2017, water intensity in crop production was around 14 000 m3/ha (The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2019). Under similar climate conditions, water intensity of crop production in southern European countries is between 5,000-7 000 m3/ha. The available literature suggests almost 40-50 % of water is lost in irrigation conveyance systems in Azerbaijan (UNECE, 2011b).

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The Kura and Aras are large rivers flowing into Azerbaijan that play a significant role in the overall water balance of the country. In addition, Azerbaijan has 63 reservoirs, of which only four have a volume larger than 1,000 million m3. The Mingechevir reservoir on the Kura river is the largest, with a capacity of 15 700 million m3. .Water from this reservoir is also used for power generation and irrigation (UNECE, 2011b).

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Water scarcity conditions are increasing in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, requiring the rapid implementation of climate change adaptation measures, as well as improving water use efficiency across economic sectors.

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The Republic of Moldova is experiencing higher water stress conditions – the annual average water exploitation index is around 13 % – compared with its neighbouring countries, Belarus and Ukraine. However, the country is still relatively far from being under severe water stress conditions.

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Water scarcity is not an issue for Georgia and Belarus. Both countries are water abundant.

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3.3       Dependency to upstream

Inflow from upstream countries constitutes the backbone of hydropolitics among the six countries. Cooperation between upstream and downstream countries to fairly share water resources in line with international norms, such as the UNECE Water Convention, is a long-lasting UN endeavour. In many cases, a large proportion of renewable freshwater resources are generated in the upstream or riparian catchments of the transboundary basins. The measure of that part of renewable freshwater resources flowing from upstream countries to downstream countries is called the dependency ratio.

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Almost all river basins along with Kura and Aras rivers are transboundary in nature. Hence, the dependency of renewable freshwater resources to upstream sub-basins also have political impacts in the region. Only the Enguri-Rioni and Bzipi-Kodori river basins have outlets to the Black Sea from the national territory of Georgia.

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Overall, Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on inflow of surface water and groundwater from neighbouring countries, followed by Belarus (Figure 5). On average, Azerbaijan’s dependency ratio for upstream water is greater than 70 % of its total renewable freshwater resources.

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Figure 5: Generation of renewable freshwater resources in the countries (2017)

Data source: Azerbaijan: Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan;

Belarus: Belstat (National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus), National environmental monitoring system of the Republic of Belarus, Water Cadastre Information System of the Republic of Belarus; Georgia: Administration Division at the National Environmental Agency - Ministry of Environment Protection and Agriculture; Armenia: ArmStatBank (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia)

Note: Data provided under the ENI SEIS II East Project. Due to insufficient data from the Republic of Moldova and no data from Ukraine, these both countries could not be included into the chart. Inflow from neighbouring countries for Georgia has been estimated as multi-annual average between 1981-1991 as no data is available for the respective year.

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The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, set a number of qualitative and quantitative targets for measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of cooperation between the countries that share river basins. In this context, UN SDG Goal no. 6.5 sets a target to implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation where appropriate by 2030. The target is measured by the indicator 6.5.2: the proportion of transboundary basin area with an operational arrangement for water cooperation.

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The Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes from 1992 (Water Convention) not only promotes cooperation on transboundary surface waters and groundwaters, but strengthens their protection and sustainable management. It provides internationally recognised norms for measuring the effectiveness and efficiency of sustainable development. Two Eastern Partnership countries have initiated the accession process to the Water Convention already in 90’s: Moldova in 1994 and Ukraine in 1999. Azerbaijan and Belarus have done this in 2000 and 2003, respectively (Table 2).

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Table 2. Status of ratification of the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lake

Source: UNECE (1992)

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Georgia and Armenia have not ratified the Water Convention yet. Despite some legacy bilateral agreements among the Caucasus countries being in place in the Soviet era before 1991, it is not clear how relevant they are now in practice (Yildiz, 2017).

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Eventually, under changing natural hydrological conditions associated with increasing socio-economic demand for water may exacerbate hydropolitical discussions in the Region. This may be overcome mostly by increasing the efficiency in water use; and improving monitoring programs, harmonising regional data and free the exchange of data and information at the regional level.

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3.3.1        Importance of water data to regional cooperation

As outlined above, data availability and accuracy are the main concerns in assessing water flow between the countries in both transboundary and riparian basins. Processes of delineating river basins, identifying surface and groundwater bodies and deploying appropriate monitoring programs are still far from being sufficient in all countries in the region.

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There is no sufficient information available for estimating the water storage of groundwater aquifers as well as their recharge and discharge, for instance, in the Republic of Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Due to the reluctance among the national water agencies in exchanging and sharing the data, in many cases, estimating the renewable freshwater resources is still also challenging, for example in the Republic of Moldova, and Georgia. In turn, the lack of monitoring programs and harmonised data at the regional level doesn’t allow to support appropriately the knowledge-based policy implementation where the cooperation among the countries for sustainable management of water resources in the main concern.

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([1]) More information on the water exploitation index of Azerbaijan can be found at;

https://eni-seis.eionet.europa.eu/east/indicators/c2-2013-freshwater-abstraction-in-the-republic-of-azerbaijan

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