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Climate change projections comparing the historic period 1971–2000 with the future period 2071-2100 (under high-emission RCP scenario 8.5), suggest that the climate could become warmer by 2.5 °C to 5.5 °C, which is above the agreed UNFCCC threshold of 2 °C for the whole planet (Map 3.1). Extreme heatwaves are expected to occur much more frequently in the second half of the 21st century (e.g. once every two years) (Russo et al., 2015). In summers, the strongest warming is projected to occur in the Iberian peninsula and other parts of southern Europe. In winter, warming will affect the most north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia (EEA, 2020c).

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