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5.2.        Future projections of water stress in Europe

Water stress in Europe is expected to further worsen in the future, as a result of climate change and socio-economic development. The JRC has modelled two different emission scenarios, resulting in three global temperature increases, with 3 ^oC as the highest, compared to pre-industrial levels (JRC, 2020b) (Map 5.2). For an increase in global temperature by 3 ^oC, the conditions of significant water stress will be extended and intensified in southern Europe, as well as in other parts of Europe, including areas in Bulgaria, Romania, France, Belgium, Germany and Poland. Moreover, the duration of seasonal water stress is projected to increase up to a month, with the highest increase expected in the Iberian peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean. In these calculations it was assumed that the water use of the economic sectors increases with the ratio of GDP growth, so increasing water use efficiency was not included.