5. Bathing in the future

5.1.       Climate change impacts

Climate change has substantially impacted European landscapes already, and will continue for many decades to come. Land and sea temperatures are increasing, precipitation patterns are changing, wet regions in Europe are becoming even wetter, dry regions drier, and sea levels are rising. Extreme events such as heat waves, heavy rain and droughts are increasing in frequency as well as intensity in many regions across Europe (EEA, 2017b). Projected short and long term climate changes will bring challenges for bathing water management. Due to climate change, the risk of flooding and strong storms generating very high waves are expected to increase, potentially causing damage to infrastructure, beaches and settlements (Borja, et al., 2020).

Most of the studies assessing the likely impacts of climate change on beach tourism in Europe use the tourism climate index (TCI). The TCI assesses the climatic elements that are most relevant to the quality of the tourism experience, such as maximum and mean daily temperature, humidity, precipitation, sunshine and wind, in order to assess human comfort for general outdoor activities (Amelung, and Moreno, 2009; Nicholls, and Amelung, 2015). Over the 21st century, climate change is projected to shift a ‘favourable’ climate northwards. As a result, Southern Europe’s suitability for bathing tourism will most likely decrease in the summer but increase in spring and autumn. Since climate conditions at the Atlantic and northern European coasts will most likely improve, competition between bathing destinations in Europe may increase.

It is likely that a projected increased number of heat waves and rising air temperatures will encourage more people to seek refreshment in bathing waters during hot summer months. In many regions, the bathing season could be prolonged into spring and autumn. Higher demand for bathing is likely to force national authorities to expand their bathing water network, identify and monitor new bathing waters and ensure that supporting infrastructure is in place (e.g. parking lots, toilets, showers).

This section presents some of the consequences of climate change as well as their impacts on the management of bathing waters in the years to come.

5.1.1.      Rise in seawater level

Global sea level has risen by almost 20 cm in the past hundred years. Sea levels have increased at most locations along the European coastline, and it is expected that in the future, sea level rise will most likely occur at a higher rate than in the last century (EEA, 2017b). Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised right now, sea levels would continue to rise for many centuries (IPCC, 2013). The potential impacts of sea level rise also include flooding and coastal erosion, which present a risk to life, property, tourism and recreation. Many coastal bathing water resorts and infrastructure will be threatened by elevated sea level and occasional flooding. Popular Mediterranean bathing destinations such as Spain, France, Italy, Croatia and Greece are among most vulnerable destinations threatened by sea level rise.

5.1.2.      River flows and floods

Floods are a natural phenomenon that have shaped floodplains for millennia. Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have significant implications for changed river flows and regional flooding (EEA, 2017a). As a result, in recent decades river flows in Europe have increased in winter and decreased in summer. These changes cannot be attributed only to climate change but also other factors such as river engineering (EEA, 2017b). Evidence also indicates that the number of severe floods in Europe has increased in recent decades (EEA, 2016c). During flooding events, river velocities are higher than at normal flows, water transparency is reduced, and pollution levels are often higher (EEA, 2017a). In Europe, economic losses from flooding have increased significantly (Barredo, 2009). For the end of the 21st century, the greatest increase in river floods with recurrence period of 100 years (probability of flooding is 1%) is projected for the British Isles, north-west and south-east France, northern Italy and some regions in south-east Spain and the Balkans (EEA, 2017a). Minor increases are also projected for central Europe where more than 200 bathing waters were affected by so called ‘Central European floods’ during 2013 bathing season (Box 14).

Increased river flows can damage bathing water infrastructure and delay different kind of debris at the bathing water area. Bathing waters affected by flooding during bathing season have to implement specific measures such as temporary bathing prohibition, debris and sediment removal. Only when bathing is considered as safe again can the temporary advice against bathing can be removed, and the bathing water can resume operation. Traditional flood risk reduction measures (e.g. dikes and dams) are costly, have negative impacts on environment and may in some cases even increase flood risk. In recent years, there has been increased interest in the use of so-called ‘nature-based’ solutions (NBSs). NBSs are actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore ecosystems in order to simultaneously provide human well-being (e.g. protection from flooding) as well as biodiversity benefits (IUCN, 2016). These can be achieved by re-establishing natural flood plains along parts of a river with the objective of reducing flood height (EEA, 2017a). One of the key attractions of such nature-based solutions is their multifunctionality. Besides their economic (e.g. reducing flood risk) and environmental (e.g. conserving biodiversity) benefits they can also provide valuable recreational and social services if they are also managed as bathing waters. Such infrastructure has the potential to offer win-win solutions by tackling several linked environmental problems and providing great number of benefits, within an economically feasible framework.

Box 14: Bathing waters affected by Central European floods

The so called ‘Central European floods’ which took place in the Central Europe in late May and June 2013 particularly affected regions along Elbe and Danube rivers, including southern and eastern German states, the western part of Czechia and Austria. Between 30 May and 1 June, these regions received up to 250 mm rainfall, which is for some regions one-fifth of the annual average.

Major flooding affected about 200 bathing waters in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Czechia. Due to the flooding and its consequences, bathing water monitoring and management were interrupted. Appropriate information was provided to the public regarding the temporary suspension of monitoring information for affected bathing waters in these cases. Monitoring could resume and adequate quality assessment samples were available for some affected bathing waters after the floods (EEA, 2014).

5.1.3.     Rise in air and water temperature

Average air temperatures in Europe are projected to increase between 1–4.5 °C by the end of the 21st century, which is more that the projected global increase due to climate change. The strongest warming is projected for north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and southern Europe in summer. The sea surface temperature is also projected to increase, although more slowly than air temperature (EEA, 2017b).

As a result of the projected rise in sea surface temperature, increases in harmful algal blooms (see section 4.4) have been projected for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (Glibert, et al., 2014). Elevated marine water temperatures also accelerate the growth rate of certain pathogens, such as Vibrio species that can cause food-borne outbreaks from infected seafood. On rare occasions, ingestion may lead to severe necrotic ulcers, septicaemia and even death if individuals are being exposed during bathing in contaminated marine environments (EEA, 2017b).

Over the last century, water temperatures in major European rivers have increased by 1–3 °C and are projected to increase further alongside projected increases in air temperature (EEA, 2017b). Mean river temperature of major European rivers is projected to increase by 1.6–2.1 °C during the 21st century (van Vliet, et al., 2013). Bathing will thus become possible in numerous European rivers which are today unsuitable for bathing due to low temperatures. Due to rise in temperature, the conditions for bathing will be more favourable to increase bathing both temporally to spring and autumn, and spatially northwards, the latter especially after 2050. Some Mediterranean destinations may become too hot in the summer, leading to decrease of summer tourism in the summer months. Nevertheless, the Mediterranean will most likely remain by far the most popular bathing destination (Perrels, et al., 2015).

5.1.4.      Droughts and water shortage

Most river monitoring stations in Europe show a decreasing trend in summer low flows over the second half of the 20th century (Stahl, et al., 2010). The severity and frequency of droughts has increased in parts of Europe and will continue to increase. Studies project large increases in droughts in most of Europe over the 21st century, except for northern regions. Unusually, low river flow, which may result from prolonged meteorological drought, also impacts water quality by reducing the ability of a river to dilute pollution (EEA, 2017b). Inland bathing waters in the Mediterranean region (in particular the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy and Albania) and parts of central (Hungary) and south-eastern Europe are amongst the most vulnerable. In these regions, bathing water managers will have to compete with other water users such as agriculture and industry in order to ensure adequate bathing water quantity and quality during such events.

The Ružín in Slovakia is a bathing site located close to a hydropower plant (see Box 15). The quality of water strongly depends on hydropower operation as does the management of the bathing site.

Box 15: Temporary interruption of bathing waters due to lack of water (Slovakia)

Ružín in Slovakia is a bathing water with excellent water quality that was closed for two consecutive seasons in 2011 and 2012. The closure to bathing was due to nearby construction works. Ružín is a reservoir for a pumped-storage hydropower plant. In 2011 and 2012, construction works at the plant, coupled with a lack of precipitation in the spring, led to a water level decrease as large as 6.5 m, rendering the location unsafe for bathing. This prompted the authorities to close Ružín as a bathing water. Since 2015, the bathing water operates again and is of ‘excellent’ quality (EEA, 2015a).

In Czechia, Lhotka, Šeberák and Popovice are other examples of ‘excellent’ quality bathing waters that were closed in 2014 due to lack of water in reservoirs. In all of the above mentioned cases the reason was removal of bottom sediments (EEA, 2015a). 

In the future, bathing water managers will have to compete with other water users such as agriculture and industry in order to ensure adequate bathing water quantity during the bathing season.

5.2.       Plastic litter in bathing waters: an emerging issue

Plastics have become the standard material of the modern economy, combining unique functional properties with low production costs. Global production of plastic has grown at approximately 9% per year from around 1.5 million tons in 1950 to 348 million tonnes per year (PlasticsEurope, 2019). Marine litter is the result of mismanaged plastic waste and a linear economy in which products are often thrown away after one use. Approximately 10 million tonnes of litter end up in the world’s seas and oceans every year.

Plastics – especially cigarette butts and packaging waste such as beverage bottles and single-use bags – are by far the main type of debris found at the beaches. The list goes on: damaged fishing nets, ropes, sanitary towels, balloons, tampons, cotton buds sticks, condoms, disposable lighters amongst many others. Beach and sea floor litter can cause injuries: a study in Australia reflects that 21.6% of beach users received injuries from beach litter at ‘clean’ beaches (defined using the ‘clean coast’ index - approximately 1.69 kg of litter per beach), illustrating that even ‘clean’ beaches pose a threat (Campbell, et al., 2016).

Beach litter at bathing water sites can then fracture into micro pieces in the water where it can be accidentally ingested by swimmers. Accumulation of such ‘microlitter’ – particularly microplastics – in the human body may might cause serious health effects. The extent of such health effects is still unknown, and a precautionary approach is necessary.

Marine animals can become entangled in beach, sea floor and floating litter items. Entanglement can cause fatal effects for animals; compromising their ability to capture and digest food, sense hunger, escape from predators, and reproduce, as well as decreasing body condition and locomotion (Thompson, et al., 2014). Entanglement is not the only negative issue; animals can also mistake marine litter for food. More than 40% of species of whales, dolphins and porpoises, all species of marine turtles, and around 36% of sea birds species are reported to have ingested marine litter.  

In addition to its environmental and health impacts, marine litter also has socio-economic costs, mostly affecting coastal communities. On average, 700 items of litter are found on each 100 m stretch of European beach, and without action and clean-up activities, marine litter will continue to accumulate. In order to boost the appeal of their bathing sites to tourists, many communities and businesses must clean up the beaches before the start of the summer season (EEA, 2016c). In the United Kingdom, municipalities spend approximately € 18 million per year on beach clean-ups. The teoretical estimated cost of keeping all 34 million km of global coastlines clean is; USD 69 billion (EUR 50 billion) per year (UN Environment, 2017), and this figure will continue to increase if we do not stop littering.

There are several EU policies associated with the management of marine litter. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008) requires EU Member States to ensure that, by 2020, "properties and quantities of marine litter do not cause harm to the coastal and marine environment". The Single-Use Plastics Directive (2019) introduces a set of ambitious measures such as a ban on selected single-use products made of plastic (including cutlery, plates, straws, cups), measures to reduce consumption of food containers and beverage cups made of plastic, and specific marking and labelling of certain products (EU, 2019).

We should work together as a European and international community in order to tackle the growing marine litter problem. The European Environment Agency has developed Marine LitterWatch to strengthen Europe's knowledge base and thus provide support to European policy making. The information on six years of beach litter collection efforts with Marine LitterWatch can be found at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/coast_sea/marine-litterwatch.

5.3.       Transboundary cooperation

Water bodies – particularly seas and oceans – are often transboundary in their nature. This means that pressures such as pollution can be spread to the whole water body or neighbouring water bodies. This includes spreading from freshwater streams to lakes and vice versa, and from freshwaters to marine water bodies. As a result, the transboundary management principle has been embedded to the EU directives (Box 16), as well as to the international conventions that have been brought in to provide a framework for international standards on pollution, monitoring and assessment, conservation and protection; and cooperation in implementing such standards. For example, the OSPAR Convention (1992) sets the framework for the North-East Atlantic and Barcelona Convention (last amended in 1995) for the Mediterranean. Freshwater resources are subject of transboundary agreements such as the Danube River Protection Convention (1994), the largest body or river basin management expertise in Europe (ICPDR, 2019). With the main objectives of the latter including ensuring sustainable water management, the Convention offers the political framework for implementing transboundary projects that affect water quality and therefore bathing.

How can management of bathing waters be embedded in such transboundary cooperation? First, there is the catchment–based approach, introduced by the EU’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), that treats waters and land bodies within a river catchment as a single system, administered by different parties: land owners, government and agencies, public, non-governmental organisations and so on. The approach also introduces the standard that river catchments in Europe should be managed as a single entity, even across national borders. The effect of land-based pollution sources to aquatic environments should be treated at their source, as they can have a long line of effects throughout the catchment and onward out to the sea. The Baltic and the Adriatic Sea are examples of semi-enclosed seas with higher vulnerability to pollution from freshwater streams.

Box 16: Cross border cooperation on the River Kolpa (Slovenia and Croatia)

The River Kolpa runs on the border along Slovenia and Croatia for 100 km of its course. There are nine bathing waters identified on the Slovenian side of the Kolpa – six are of excellent water quality and three of good quality. The Slovenian and Croatian water authorities successfully cooperate in the management of the river and its catchment area according to the principles of the Water Framework and Floods Directives. The work is coordinated through a bilateral commission. For example, in 2000, a Kolpa water management plan was prepared. Six years ago, a Slovenian–Croatian cross border project (Frisco1) started to reduce flood risk with non–structural measures. Both countries are also cooperating in the management of pollution sources and heavy rain runoff to support good ecological status and prevent future deterioration of bathing water quality.  

In addition to catchment–based approaches, good practices of bathing water quality supervision (including monitoring) and measure-taking are already shared and discussed between EU Member States, within an expert framework set by the BWD. For example, the EU SWIM project, launched during the bathing season of 2019, has facilitated cross border benefits, as both schools (in Ireland and the UK, respectively) participating in weather data collecting programme can link their results, sharing knowledge on interconnected environmental factors that affect bathing water quality, and reaching as far as developing bathing water quality prediction models(EPA Catchment Unit, 2019). Nevertheless, good practices of management for critical bathing waters with long-term low bathing water quality should be shared and discussed further. There is still space to improve a number of ‘poor’ quality bathing waters throughout European Member States, mostly in inland areas. In the future, common pollution prediction models and wider early-warning systems can be developed, as they are based on mathematical models and be relatively easily expanded to different environments, provided that the experts from these cooperate in a common effort.