3. Status, trends and projections

3.     Status, trends and projections

This chapter will be based on the background documents of ETC/ICM and ETC/CCA and their on-going developments.

It will contain facts and numbers form existing studies to set the scene with what happened/happens. It deals with drivers, pressures, state and impact. It will be the knowledge base used in the following chapters of this report where necessary actions are proposed. The projects developed by the Commission as e.g. ClimWaterAdapt, ENSEMBLES or LISFLOOD and on “water retention potential” will feed into this assessment.

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It summarizes the climate change scenarios but also other drivers as e.g. demographic or economic projections. Examples of questions raised in this chapter are:

-          Has frequency and/or intensity of rainfall changed over the years and what are the expectations based on climate change scenarios?

-          Have droughts increased and prolonged and/or are they expecting to do so due to climate change expectations?

-          Is there an increase in the frequency and/or impact of floods and if so can this be attributed to climate change?



Urban aspects and the effect of land use and land cover changes will be investigated in this chapter besides a sector approach.

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Specific information will be provided in different subchapters for:

  1. Floods;
  2. Water Scarcity and Droughts; and
  3. Water Quality.

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There will be certain synergies with other thematic assessments. As an example for flood protection, a reference can be made to the Hydromorphology report where the information on the hydromorphological aspects of sustainable flood risk management can be found.

A core part of the assessment regarding water Scarcity and Droughts will be the information on water availability, supply and abstraction. It will be based on recent updates of calculations of the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) and the data provided by member States for that Priority data flow on water quantity and development of WS&D indicators. It will in addition be based on the Water Account calculations for Europe.

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In this chapter examples and case studies from member states or river basin districts will be included. Information in addition to what’s available in the 2 background documents by the ETCs from the member states or relevant stakeholders are welcome.

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