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3.3.3.      Climate change

Any change in climate will lead to changes in regional weather and have range of associated impacts upon society and the environment. There is considerable evidence that the world’s climate and weather are continually changing as a result of naturally fluctuating climatic systems and due to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide driving a global trend in temperature increases. The complexity of what drives these changes leads to significant uncertainty when attempting to predict future patterns of change. This uncertainty is amplified when considering the impacts upon the hydrological cycle and the associated impacts upon society and freshwater ecosystems. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IPCC 2007) chapter on Freshwater resources and their management identified vulnerabilities of freshwater to climate variability from changing precipitation patterns and greater year-to-year hydrological variability. While this is most apparent in semi-arid and low-income countries, the fact that water infrastructure is generally designed for stationary conditions means there exists a high degree of sensitivity and vulnerability to uncertain non-stationary future conditions driven by climate change. Changes to hydrology identified include (IPCC 2007):

i.   Changes in volume, intensity, type and timing of precipitation will alter river flows and resultant wetland and lake levels;

ii.  Temperature, radiation, humidity and wind speed changes will affect the hydrological cycle and further exaggerate impacts of decreased precipitation;

iii.  Groundwater is less directly affected but can become more strongly relied upon to provide secure access to freshwater;

iv.  Increased variability and intensity of precipitation is projected to increase flood risk and drought;

v.   Water quality will be significantly affected by multiple stressors such as higher temperatures, increased low flows, more intense rainfall all exacerbating many forms of water pollution.

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