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Box 3.3 The United Kingdom Climate Change Act 2008 – Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012

The United Kingdom has undertaken an extensive climate risk assessment (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs 2012) that assess the potential impacts and opportunities of climate change to key themes that affect future UK development and security. The need to embrace long-term planning and better understand risks is viewed as critical in ensuring a resilient society and environment. This will be achieved using a risk-based approach, with the government leading a National Adaptation Programme to be published in 2013. The key risks to water and freshwater systems identified within the themes considered for the UK include:

Natural Environment - the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the natural environment could be significant by the 2050s, potentially further exacerbating existing pressures on ecosystems and contributing to the further decline of some species. Key impacts include i) low water levels and reduced river flows leading to increased concentration of pollutants from agriculture, sewage and air pollution damaging freshwater habitats and other ecosystem services; ii) warmer rivers, lakes and seas impacting on biodiversity and the productivity and functioning of aquatic and marine ecosystems; iii) possibility of algal blooms, ocean acidification and species range shifts impacting on marine habitats, species and ecosystem services; iv) changes in timing of seasonal events and migration patterns can result in mismatches between species such as predator-prey/host relationships.

Agriculture & Forestry – could be affected by both extreme weather events and gradual climate change, particularly beyond 2050. Key impacts include i) higher summer soil moisture deficits, increasing demand for irrigation to maintain crop yields and quality; ii) crop losses and other impacts on high quality agricultural land due to flooding and agricultural land lost to coastal erosion; iii) increased competition for water resources in the summer owing to reduced summer rainfall and the need to address unsustainable abstraction; Drier conditions and any increase in the frequency of drought will reduce agriculture and timber yield and affect woodland condition.

Buildings & Infrastructure - buildings and infrastructure will be affected by both extreme weather events and long-term gradual change in the climate. The challenges arise from higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

Business &Services - main water related risks and opportunities to the Business sector are related to flooding and water resources.

Health & Wellbeing - will be affected by both extreme weather events and long-term gradual change. The main challenges arise from higher temperatures (on land and sea), changing rainfall patterns and rising sea levels