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3.3.4.      Land use change

Amongst many aspects of global change, land use change has a key human-induced effect on ecosystems ((Lambin et al. 2001)). Changes in climate and land use can result in large changes in ecosystem service supply often going together with an increased vulnerability of these ecosystems. The provision of many ecosystems services relies directly on land use ((Metzger et al. 2006)). When socio-economic scenarios and climate models are combined on the local scale and for the next decades the socio-economic changes often seem dominant in their effect on future land use and land use changes (Schröter et al. 2005). Metzger et al. (2006) made scatter plots for different categories of ecosystem services for different European regions and different socio-economic scenarios. The vulnerability shows a tension around economic growth in southern Europe. Economic growth can indicate more technological developments, infrastructure, equity and power, combined in a higher adaptive capacity (Metzger et al. 2006). At the same time, the socio-economic scenarios with the largest economic growth are the ones with most pronounced land use changes and largest negative potential impact on ecosystem services (Metzger et al. 2006)

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