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On average, higher flood damages were projected for all countries within the EU (Figure 5.1). Taking into account both climate and socio-economic changes under the A1B scenario (more details about scenarios in (EEA (report under preparation) 2012b, section 5.2), the EAD was projected to increase to € 20 billion by the 2020s, to over €45 billion by the 2050s, and almost €100 billion by the 2080s for the ensemble mean results. A significant part of this rise will be due to socio-economic change. Nevertheless, the isolated effect of climate change alone amounted to almost € 10 billion by the 2020s, almost €20 billion by the 2050s, and €50 billion by the 2080s. More about ClimateCost can be found in (EEA (report under preparation) 2012b, section 5.7.1) as well as other major flood impact research projects like PESETA and the ESPON Climate project (chapter under construction)

Figure 5.1 Relative change in expected annual flood damage (EAD)

Source: ClimateCost / reported in Flörke et al. (2011)
Note: Relative change in expected annual flood damage (EAD) due to climate change between future time slice and baseline period. a) 2000s (1981-2010); b) 2020s (2011-2040); c) 2050s (2041-2070); d) 2080s (2071-2100). Current 1 % annual flood probability level assumed as protection level in all time periods (i.e., no adaptation to future changes in flood risk).

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