FLIS Public Website

Glossary Element  Foresight Dictionary


English: Scenario building

Glossary Element  Scenario building

Scenario building is a key foresight method by which a set of scenarios is conceived, formulated and elaborated. It allows to connect various drivers, trends, conditioning factors and/or policies to envisage alternative futures that allow decision makers to explore how the future might or should evolve in different ways and to prepare for a range of different possible futures so as to influence and shape the future. Scenario building is based on the notion of deep uncertainty that consists of a range of possible alternatives, more or less probable and more or less desirable.  A synonym is scenario development.


Dammers, E. et al. 2013. Scenario’s maken voor milieu, natuur en ruimte – een handreiking. Den Haag

Jakil, A. 2011. Sustainability Governance Foresight – Towards Bridging the Knowledge Gap between Policy Analysis and Governance for Sustainable Development. Vienna.