Foresight Dictionary

Translations

English: Trend impact analysis

Trend impact analysis

Trend impact analysis is a method aimed at extrapolating historical data into the future, while taking unprecedented future events into account. It involves systematically examining the effects of possible future events likely to affect the trend that is extrapolated. The events can include technological, political, social, economic and value-oriented changes. In forecasting, expert opinions are used to identify future events that might cause deviations from a surprise-free projection and calibrate their likelihood and potential strength. In foresight, expert opinions are used to determine the ruptures in trends as a consequence of nonlinearity, multiple interactive parts and the evolution in dynamic systems.

Sources

Dreyer, I. and Stang, G. 2013. Foresight in governments – practices and trends around the world.