FLIS Public Website
NRC FLIS meetings
Consultation with countries
WG - Global Megatrends
WG - Emerging Issues
FLIS Reach-out
Projects
Navigation
External links
Notifications
Events

Glossary Element  Foresight Dictionary

Translations

English: Uncertainty

Glossary Element  Uncertainty

Uncertainty is defined as an indetermination regarding future developments. The main determinants of deep uncertainty in foresight include complexity and/or dynamism of societal and physical systems and the perspective dependence of knowledge and observations. Forecasting practitioners assume that uncertainty can be reduced well enough to predict and control the future.

Sources

Jakil, A. 2011. Sustainability Governance Foresight – Towards Bridging the Knowledge Gap between Policy Analysis and Governance for Sustainable Development. Vienna.

Vecchiato, R. 2012. Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79 (2012) 436–447.