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3.5       Water, agricultural pressures, and climate change

3.5.1        Impacts of climate change on agricultural pressures on the water environment

Climate change will impact both climatological conditions across Europe (see Introduction) and the productivity of agriculture across Europe (see Chapter 2.1.4). Here, the impacts of climate change on agricultural pressures on the water environment is examined. Complex dynamics are expected between climate conditions, the hydrological cycle and agricultural production. Recent studies indicate that these dynamics will broadly follow different trends between southern and northern Europe. They are examined in turn below.

Southern Europe

Figure 3.9 presents the changes in agricultural pressures on water expected for Southern Europe in the short term, if no transformative adaptation in the agriculture takes place.

Increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water requirements in Southern Europe (EEA, 2019a). This increased water demand will be amplified by more water and nutrients for the same agricultural area and crop in order to maintain crop productivity. This can be explained by the fact that on one hand more water and nutrients are needed to stimulate the longer growth cycle and additional water is needed to secure uptake of nutrients.

Crops that have been rainfed so far will change to needing more water for irrigation (EEA, 2019a). This additional crop water demands will increase water storage demands, lower eflows, or unsustainable groundwater abstraction (EEA, 2018d) impacting hydromorphology of surface waters and ecological status of surface and groundwater status. Overall, it is important to note that the use conflicts of water within the agricultural sector (between farmers) and between sectors (e.g. shipping, energy) are expected to increase.

On the other side most of the processes responsible for soil degradation, including soil organic matter mineralization and erosion, are enhanced by higher temperature and more intense precipitation (Balkovič et al., 2018). Furthermore, the increased temperature can lead to new/increased pests, demanding more pesticides (Lavalle et al., 2009). As stated above this might increase water pollution leading to not meeting good ecological status or deteriorating status further.

Northern Europe

Figure 3.10 presents the changes in agricultural pressures on water expected for Northern Europe. Climate change is projected to improve the suitability for growing crops in Northern Europe as a result of a lengthened of the growing season and a decreasing of cold effects on growth (EEA, 2019a). The increased growing season for crops and grasslands may boost livestock system production in northern Europe (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017), leading to changes in the distribution of pathogens and pathogen vectors present challenges. The projected increase in rainfall may pose challenges for grazing livestock and grass harvesting owing to the accessibility of land and declining soil fertility through soil compaction. Depending on the areas available, increased livestock might result in areas with high surplus of nitrogen resulting in lower groundwater quality.

Increased precipitation can lead to increased pressure to drain agricultural land and increase conductivity of streams and rivers, increasing hydromorphological pressures, and reducing ecological status (Abdelbaki, 2015). Also increased precipitation and flooding may lead to increased fertiliser and pesticide pollution due to greater run-off, and reduce capacity for winter crops designed to secure continued nutrient uptake and reduce erosion. Furthermore, the increased temperature can lead to new/increased pests, demanding more pesticides (Lavalle et al., 2009). This could decrease ecological status in surface and chemical status in surface and ground waters.

In some areas in northern Europe the increasing drought risks might require that crops that have been rainfed can change to needing water from irrigation (Feyen et al., 2020). This is expected to have negative impacts on ground water bodies.