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3.5.1        Impacts of climate change on European agriculture and water from a global perspective

Further climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production on the global level as well and, therefore, food supply and global markets (Porfirio et al., 2018). Even if there are high uncertainties on how global markets will develop there is a common understanding that production patterns will change having also impacts on the EU production (FAO, 2018b).

A cascade of impacts from climate change to agro-ecosystems and crop production, with effects on price, quantity, and quality of the products, and consequently on trade patterns is expected to impact agricultural income in Europe. In the future, the economic value of European farmland may significantly change due to a combination of these cascading impacts. Agriculture intensification could take place in northern and Western Europe, while in southern Europe and especially the Mediterranean a reduction in the relative profitability of agriculture could result in land extensification and abandonment. There will also be areas where the agricultural sector will have losses as the water supply for human consumption will have the highest priority not allowing enough water for irrigation (Godot, 2013), but also to secure e-flows. In such cases, a balance between environmental, social, and economic goals needs to be found (GWP, 2019).

The overall impacts of climate change on European agriculture could produce an important loss for the sector, however with large regional differences. For example, farmers might be adversely affected if a drought damages their crops. They may spend more money due to increasing irrigation costs, drilling new wells, or feeding and providing water for their animals. Industries linked with farming activities, such as companies that make tractors and food, may lose business when drought damages crops or livestock (Cammalleri et al., 2020).

The sector will need to further adapt to these changes to secure sustainable agricultural production. Farm-level adaptation can reduce losses caused by extreme events, but knowledge on all the impacts of climate change on agriculture is still limited, especially when impacts are multiplied or combined with other social-economic consequences of climate change (EEA, 2019a).

EU production could still slightly increase due to the interplay of different market forces. This is because the negative effects in Europe are projected to be lower compared to the other world regions. This provides the EU with a comparative advantage in terms of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, which could positively affect its competitiveness (Feyen et al., 2020).

On the global level, climate change threatens agricultural production in all parts of the world. Impacts on regional yields can be substantial even in the early decades. The magnitude and exact projected location are nevertheless subject to uncertainty from climate and crop models as well as internal climate variability (Wallach et al., 2015). The long-term yield impacts of climate change more clearly emerge from variability in the middle and end of the 21st century, with considerable variation across regions, and with maize and wheat systems generally more vulnerable than rice and soy (Rosenzweig et al., 2014).

These changes, but also changes in food demand due to a growing global populations and changes in diet are expected to alter the geographic extent of major farm systems, shift trade flows, and drive major investment