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5.1.2.      River flows and floods

Floods are a natural phenomenon that have shaped floodplains for millennia. Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have significant implications for changed river flows and regional flooding (EEA, 2017a). As a result, in recent decades river flows in Europe have increased in winter and decreased in summer. These changes cannot be attributed only to climate change but also other factors such as river engineering (EEA, 2017b). Evidence also indicates that the number of severe floods in Europe has increased in recent decades (EEA, 2016c). During flooding events, river velocities are higher than at normal flows, water transparency is reduced, and pollution levels are often higher (EEA, 2017a). In Europe, economic losses from flooding have increased significantly (Barredo, 2009). For the end of the 21st century, the greatest increase in river floods with recurrence period of 100 years (probability of flooding is 1%) is projected for the British Isles, north-west and south-east France, northern Italy and some regions in south-east Spain and the Balkans (EEA, 2017a). Minor increases are also projected for central Europe where more than 200 bathing waters were affected by so called ‘Central European floods’ during 2013 bathing season (Box 14).