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Changes in the climate component of the water cycle ([1])

Temperature and precipitation are two key climate variables (EEA (report under preparation) 2012b, section 2.2). Time series show long-term warming trends of European average annual temperature since the end of the 19th century, with most rapid increases in recent decades. The last decade (2002-2011) was the warmest on record globally and in Europe. Heat waves have also increased in frequency and length. All these changes are projected to continue at an increased pace throughout the 21st century. Precipitation changes across Europe show more spatial and temporal variability than temperature. Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in North-eastern and North-western Europe – most notably in winter - and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe. In Western Europe intense precipitation events have provided a significant contribution to the increase. Most climate model projections show a continued precipitation increases in northern Europe (most notably during winter) and decreases in southern Europe (most notably during summer). The number of days with high precipitation is projected to increase.