6 The way forward

The transition towards sustainability at the interface between water and agriculture will be a challenging task that will not be solved by traditional policy interventions. Responding more effectively to sustainability challenge will require a better understanding of the conditions and mechanisms that drive agricultural production, with particular focus on consumption systems around food, energy and fiber. This report documents that across Europe the agricultural production associated with pollution, water abstraction, and hydromorphological pressures, the drivers leading to these pressures, that an elaborate system of management measures is available but also points towards potential improvements in management and policy. Responding to these challenges is becoming urgent, since climate change impacts in parts of Europe are becoming strong enough to potentially jeopardise water availability for crops, increase pollution, and hydromorphological pressures, putting the agricultural production itself at risk.  

In past decades, more resource efficient farming practices have been adopted in European farming systems, which has contributed to the levelling of pressures. However, as also documented in Chapter 3, the system remains far from sustainable. Less resource demanding farming systems may be needed to further reduce pressures on water, and, although not a subject in this report, they would also benefit biodiversity, soils, and climate change mitigation. Such systems would further enhance the resilience of the agricultural production to climate change.

Identifying the target for a more resilient and sustainable production remains a challenge. One approach could be to explore limitations for resource use at the basin scale, establishing the capacity of the natural environment to absorb pollution, recycle nutrients and provide water to agroecosystems. Establishing such limits for basins would help to better understand how much agricultural production can be sustainably produced in terms of crop yields and livestock, given the capacities of the basin. It is rather likely that production levels would be lower than what the current systems provide, and hence has implications for farmers’ incomes, food prices, and availability.  

The uptake of more sustainable farming systems in return, depends critically on being attractive to the individual farmer and the actors of the value chains benefiting from agricultural production. Thus, developing a more sustainable agricultural production cannot be seen in isolation from consumer demands and overall market forces. The European and global consumer preferences by individuals and industries are extremely important drivers for food production and its prices. These interlinkages are very challenging to manage without developing unintended consequences. However, this is what is required to make progress along the objectives of the European Green Deal.    

With its ambitious policy initiatives, including the proposed EU Climate Law, Adaptation Strategy, Biodiversity Strategy, the Farm to Fork strategy, and the Zero Pollution Action Plan, the European Green Deal has articulated the ambition to move Europe on to a more sustainable development path

Sustainability is a central concept in these policies, but although clear messages are passed in terms of targets, a better understanding of how to get there is needed. For example, aiming for organic farming on 25% of the agricultural land area is a powerful and clear objective set in the Biodiversity 2030 and Farm to Fork Strategies, but a better understanding of the systemic challenges that need to be overcome to achieve the target is needed.  Clearer and more systemic definitions of sustainability are warranted to move the overall production and consumption systems in this direction. Sustainable solutions will not be realised by targeting change in one area, but by a large scale and probably long term effort to jointly restore nature, improve efficient resource use, implementation of more sustainable farming practices, and changing consumer demand and other drivers from consumption systems.

As part of making progress towards more sustainable agriculture, this work points to four areas of improvement: more resilient management actions, improved implementation and integration of EU policies, more holistic approaches through systems thinking, and better knowledge systems.

6.1       More resilient management actions at basin and farm level

This report has shown that a wide variety of management measures exists to tackle agricultural pressures on the water environment. To date, most measures implemented have sought to improve water management and increase the efficiency of resource use in agriculture. This has resulted in significant improvements and, in some cases, a stabilization in the exponential growth in agricultural pressures observed earlier in the 20^th century. While some decline in pressures and water quality improvements have been observed, the current level of resource inputs (water, nutrients, and pesticides) remain unsustainable.

There is, however, still significant room for additional environmental improvements from increased resource use efficiency. Reaching WFD environmental targets will require more ambitious uptake of sustainable agricultural production aiming to reduce overall resource use. Furthermore, in the coming period, the impact of global warming on water resources is likely to become stronger. It will result in an increased level of unpredictability and uncertainty for farmers and public authorities alike. This places more urgency on the need to develop resilient approaches in agricultural production, or pressures to the surrounding environment will continue to increase. At the same time, adaptive management is needed to secure development of best practices. Resilient management action has been divided into three categories: improving management of sustainability and resource efficiency, developing improved resilience and risk management strategies, and recognising and managing complexity.  Many of these recommendations could be picked up by existing policy processes for further streamlining across Europe.  

Improving management of sustainability and resource efficiency:

• Enhancing efficiency in use of nutrients, pesticides and water. Wide scope for improving nutrient use efficiency in production and within the food chain. Large scope to optimize use of pesticides. Scope for improving water productivity (more crop per drop). Although precision farming has big role in future farming, need to acknowledge limitations, as an efficient but large consumption of fertilisers, pesticides and irrigation water will still induce large pressures.
• Further specify sustainability standards at river basin and farm level to put limits on resource use– each river basin and aquifer – and their agricultural land management- have unique biophysical, social and economic conditions. There is not a one-size fit all response – hence general sustainability principles must be transcribed into local conditions to make it operational to river basin authorities and farmers. This implies setting targets for water management and agricultural practices. Water management targets could include targets for basin-wide reduction of nutrient loads or maximum volumes of water that can be abstracted in a particular basin. Similarly, targets for good agricultural practices could include targets for organic farm area, nutrient application standards, integrated pesticides management, and irrigation application rates.

Developing improved resilience and risk management strategies:

• Managing uncertainty explicitly by promoting no-regret options. In an uncertain future, it is important to avoid costly investments which may not provide anticipated levels of return. Hence, ecosystem restoration and landscape approaches that provide multiple benefits (e.g. restoring floodplain dynamics, restoring landscape-wide natural infiltration) may be more cost-effective than costly, large infrastructure development (e.g. reservoirs).
• Managing risks not yield - Need to move away on focus on inputs and yields, but instead focus on risk management and multiple benefits delivered at farm and landscape level. One example is on adapting to water scarcity and drought: need to manage rainfall, soils and evapotranspiration by designing the right rainfed practices and diverse agricultural systems. Building resilience in agroecosystems by reducing reliance on input, increasing internal recycling, and diversifying production support this.

Recognising and managing complexity:

• Recognising the complexity of management of water in agriculture, in an adaptive management approach. Establishing sustainability standards will be prone to scientific challenges and uncertainties. Furthermore, agroecological techniques are strongly dependent on local contexts, and designing the right approach will need trial-and-error. Adaptive management will ensure regular revision of knowledge and practice based on best available science. Knowledge systems will need to be developed that provides a better understanding of scale of pressures (e.g. level of application of pesticide, metering and monitoring of water use) and ensure this knowledge informs RBMP and CAP implementation.
• Accompanying transformations at farm level in an integrated way. Farmers will need support to identify how to diversify production effectively reducing pressure while increasing their physical, economic and social resilience to global change. But they will also need adequate signal from market actors in the food and other consumption systems. Support to collective approaches between farmers, food chain actors, authorities and consumers and citizens will be needed to mutualise risks and capacities, promoting social learning, and engage in a systemic transition at multiple levels.

6.2       Improved implementation and integration of EU policies

The EU has a comprehensive environmental policy framework, developed over decades, that has contributed to tackle agricultural pressures on the water environment. A lack of enforcement has however impeded their successful implementation. At the same, the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies have established new ambitious targets:

• To reduce nutrient losses by at least 50% while ensuring that there is no deterioration in soil fertility (this would reduce use by 20%)
• To reduce by 50 % of the overall use and risk of chemical pesticides and the use of more hazardous pesticides by 50% by 2030
• To reduce by 50% in sales of antimicrobials used for farmed animals and aquaculture
• 25% of agricultural land organically farmed by 2030
• 10% agricultural area as high diversity landscape features by 2030
• To achieve EU commitments on land degradation neutrality, including action on soil sealing, soil contamination, soil health and functions

To achieve these targets, greater coherence is needed between EU environmental policies and the sectoral EU policies supporting agricultural production. Recent decades have seen improved integration of water targets in the Common Agricultural Policies. However, future agricultural policies need to be more ambitious on the scale of change needed in production systems. More systemic attention is needed to the ways CAP regulatory and incentive instruments support transition in farming production coherent with environmental goals. The main tools available to manage this challenge for water is a combination of the river basin management plans and the new CAP strategic plans.

Better enforcement of existing policies:

• Reduce non-compliance with existing requirements. Several gaps remain in the implementation of existing environmental legislation. There needs to be more systematic registration, licensing and monitoring of agricultural water abstraction –and avoiding illegal water abstraction. Exemptions should be avoided in the implementation of the Nitrates Directive, in particular regarding limits to fertilizer and manure application. Adoption of integrated pest management by farmers should be mainstreamed, for example by strengthening requirements in future CAP cross-compliance.
• More coherent implementation. Environmental legislation is not always fully reflected in agricultural policy. Remaining CAP Pillar I support payments to high input systems should be avoided. Under Pillar II, support to farming systems posing risks to the water environment should be avoided to lock-in into particular intensive production modes. For instance, investments into irrigation efficiency should be made conditional with uptake of water efficient crops and safeguards to avoid increase in water use. Furthermore, the preparation of CAP Strategic Plan and their implementation should integrate fully the information, indicators, priorities and measures stemming from the relevant RBMPs.

More ambitious design of support instruments:

• Consider efficient resource use as the baseline requirement for any farming system. Efficiency standards in the use of nutrients, pesticides and water are needed and could be integrated in the framework of CAP cross-compliance. This would further mainstream best farm management practices, and redirect CAP resources to supporting the transition towards agroecological measures in ecoschemes and RDPs.
• Upscaling the support to agroecological principles throughout the CAP. The ambition of crop diversification and rotation measures in CAP Pillar I eco-schemes should be high. Support to the adoption of organic farming and other forms of sustainable agricultural systems in CAP Pillar II should be vastly expanded (support rate and budgetary envelope). CAP Strategic plans should adequately identify priority basins with regards to agricultural pressures under the RBMP, and ensure the implementation of eco-schemes and Pillar II RDP payments are targeted towards those areas. Results-based payments schemes could ensure that needs, ambition and results are aligned.
• Strengthen areas that currently lack a strategic approach to tackling pressures and drivers. This is relevant for instance regarding management of water use in agriculture, since the EU does not yet have an overarching approach to strengthen the resilience of agriculture to scarcity and droughts. Such strategy would need to increase resilience through agroecological principles and consider resource limitations at river basin level. Similarly, the restoration of aquatic ecosystems, and how to tackle agricultural pressures (drainage, livestock, irrigation infrastructure), will need to be at the core of the future EU Nature Restoration Plan.
• Ensure that RBMP and CAP measures on water and agriculture are climate-proofed. This means avoiding costly infrastructure investments if future benefits are uncertain, and invest in no-regret measures that increases overall resilience and provide multiple benefits. These solutions include agroecological forms of agriculture that preserve and enhance soils, as well as landscape approaches and nature-based solutions. CAP support payments should be directed to type of production and investments that will be coherent with future climate impacts on water resources and crop production.

6.3       Mainstreaming systems thinking to improve management

It is not possible to achieve water targets without a combined approach to change both agricultural practices and consumer demand and this needs to be supported by a transition in food and energy systems. Food and Energy systems are important drivers of the agricultural production. Demands within these systems has a large influence on specific choices of farmers, and ultimately on our ability to reach environmental targets.  Managing sustainably in this context requires balancing the need for affordable products, social wellbeing and fairness, and the protection of the natural resource base, which in return will require explicit acknowledgement of systemic trade-offs.

The newly adopted Farm to Fork Strategy provides leverage towards a sustainable food system, and it calls for changing systemic drivers such as consumer preferences and diets, but further attention is needed on other drivers linked to developing more sustainable agricultural systems, food supply chains, and to reduce food loss and waste. 

Support the transformation of production systems through the food chain

• Prepare a coordinated policy to increase the production of, and market for, plant-based proteins – from production to consumer by supporting farm level transitions through investments in infrastructure for alternative protein food products and consumer awareness raising.
• Integrate food system perspective in national and regional water, agriculture and food policies. For instance, CAP strategic plans should actively support infrastructure investments in the food chain (storage, food product transformation unit) to support a diversification of agriculture. This could be coordinated with water and environmental policies to target sustainable investments in priority areas for the WFD, i.e. target drinking water protected areas. Procurement contracts for supplying food to institutions could be used to support local production of organic food.
• Ensure that investments in the food chain are climate proofs. Hence, new food chain infrastructure investments should be coherent with the production patterns of a resilient agriculture under climate change, e.g. they support diversification of production and support crops that are more resistant to droughts.

Re-orient demand towards sustainable consumption patterns

• Stimulate demand for products from sustainable farming by consumers: labelling schemes and regulations to promote green products that minimise footprint on water and land.
• Reduce food waste and enhance circularity in the food chain, to reduce demand for primary agricultural products, g. using food waste for bioenergy instead of using intensive bioenergy for energy production
• Align agricultural, trade, environmental, and climate policies to avoid displacement of environmental impacts outside the EU and protect higher environmental standards in European agriculture.

6.4  Closing remark

The path of sustainable development will be a complex one. It requires a much deeper understanding of large scale links – those between the food and energy systems, the agricultural sector, and in this case the objectives of water policy – than available at present. To achieve a sustainable transformation in the water and agriculture domain, decision-making will need to be supported by robust knowledge systems and innovation to provide understanding of the scale of changes needed and to create incentives for new responses. Experimentation and learning will be essential.

The scale of challenges facing Europe to reach sustainability at the interface between water and agriculture is enormous. The same ambition that underpinned the modernisation of agriculture in the post World War II period is needed to achieve a more sustainable agricultural system. Conventional techniques have benefitted from 70 years of mainstream research and development. Agroecological techniques will also need significant financial and technical resources to achieve required large-scale uptake to reduce agricultural pressures on European water resources, biodiversity, soils, and climate and time will be needed to reach their full potential. The Green Deal provides fresh opportunities to engage in this transition, and, if fully implemented and operationalised, the new ambitious targets should provide the new impetus needed to move towards a more resilient and sustainable future.