Trend analysis is a method for locating a trend that is apparent over time and projecting it into the future, based on historical data on the rates of change and the extent of change achieved. A trend curve is fitted to historical data to calculate a future trend, given no unprecedented future events. A trend is a statement about the direction of a change in the forces that shape the future of a system, sector, organisation, etc. Usually the focus of such a statement is gradual and long-term challenges. Trend analysis provides a basis for building scenarios.
Dammers, E. 2013. Scenario’s maken voor milieu,natuur en ruimte – een handreiking. Den Haag